Commerzbank Lowers Gold and Silver Price Forecasts Amid Middle East Conflict

Commerzbank has revised its gold and silver forecasts downward for the second time in two months, now expecting year-end prices of $4,500 per ounce for gold and $67 for silver. Analysts cite persistent inflation forcing the Fed to stay hawkish, along with the ongoing Iran conflict overshadowing bullish drivers.

Economist Thu Lan Nguyen notes that markets are overly optimistic about rate cuts, potentially allowing gold some recovery by year-end. The longer-term outlook stays positive, with gold possibly reaching $5,000 in 2027 if inflation moderates.

Despite geopolitical risks, the bank sees limited impact on the US economy. Structural factors such as doubts over the dollar’s safe-haven status, central bank reserve diversification, and rising sovereign debt continue to support gold’s long-term appeal.