Gold and Silver Not Top Inflation Hedges; Broaden into Commodity Supercycle – Auspice Capital

Tim Pickering of Auspice Capital Advisors argues that gold's recent shortfalls prove its unreliability as an inflation hedge due to sensitivity to elevated rates. He advises investors to seek broad commodity exposure as the global economy enters a potential multi-decade supercycle. Pickering stresses that gold can suffer when central banks hike rates to curb inflation, as occurred from 2020 to 2022 when US inflation reached 9%. He highlights that commodities drive inflation via energy and materials costs, unlike gold which merely reacts to it. "Gold's not a panacea. It's just a diversifier," he said. The firm maintains long positions in nine of 12 commodity markets while avoiding gold, silver, and North American natural gas, instead favoring petroleum products, copper, and grains. Entry into precious metals requires sustained positive price momentum. Pickering sees the supercycle supported by emerging-market demand, the energy transition, and AI needs, with geopolitical risks amplifying pressures.