Gold Oversold Below $4000, Yet Near-Term Rally Remains Unlikely, BCA’s Ibrahim Says

Gold prices have fallen below the key $4,000-per-ounce level amid weak momentum, even as 10-year U.S. Treasury yields slipped under 5%. BCA Research strategist Roukaya Ibrahim notes that technical indicators point to oversold conditions and a potential rebound, yet macroeconomic headwinds—persistent inflation and a strong dollar—are likely to keep prices moving sideways through year-end.

The metal’s deviation from its 200-day moving average mirrors July levels when a short-term bottom formed. Ibrahim stressed that $4,000 remains critical support, with a sustained break lower possibly signaling further weakness. She added that gold’s link to the dollar now outweighs real rates, while Middle East tensions intensify inflation risks.

Ibrahim views the recent sell-off as likely liquidity-driven rather than structural. Longer-term support comes from central-bank buying and potential private demand amid U.S. fiscal concerns. A more favorable setup for a rally could emerge in early 2027.