Gold's Next $1,000 Move Likely Higher as Fed Hawkishness Peaks, Says State Street's Doshi

Gold is poised to hover near $4,000 per ounce for the rest of summer amid uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy moves. State Street's Aakash Doshi argues that after this period, the metal's subsequent $1,000 surge should point upward, as markets have already overdone expectations of aggressive Fed tightening.

Doshi notes the central bank could pause rate hikes through year-end given elevated real yields around 2.4%. His outlook sees gold trading between $4,750 and $5,500 over the next six to nine months, potentially hitting $5,000 in the first half of next year if two-year yields drop below 4%. Weak July jobs data might trigger quicker repricing of rate expectations.

Beyond rates, resilient central bank buying and strong Chinese imports support the market, while record global debt at $353 trillion underscores gold's role as a monetary hedge amid geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict.