Natixis Expects Gold to Fall to $4,100 by Year-End Under Three Possible Outcomes

According to Natixis, gold prices face downward pressure through year-end due to higher oil prices, persistent inflation, and rising interest rates. Precious metals analyst Bernard Dahdah presented three scenarios: a base case targeting $4,100 per ounce, a bearish drop to $3,500, and a bullish surge above $5,250 if the Fed pivots.

This outlook differs from the bank's August projection of $5,000, as gold's negative correlation with oil has strengthened amid geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Higher crude costs are fueling inflation fears, leading to expectations of further Fed rate hikes that increase gold's opportunity costs.

ETF holdings in physical gold continue to rise even as prices decline, signaling some dip-buying, but central bank demand may wane if countries prioritize currency defense. The base scenario assumes steady rates in 2027 with gold recovering to $4,750.